The International Energy Agency (IEA) presented in its annual report, which looks back on 2017, as well as its forecasts for the next few years, until 2022, which underline that solar photovoltaic energy is the future.
In the presentation, it was pointed out that solar photovoltaic energy had a growth of 50% during the year 2017, compared to 2016. China is the country that has contributed the most to this development.
For the first time, photovoltaic solar energy has experienced higher production growth than coal. And this is only the beginning, since in 2022 the use of renewable energies should reach 1000 GW, which amounts to saying that it will be half of the production of current thermal power stations, whose construction required nearly 80 years. .
Heymi Bahar of the IEA assures us that “We are witnessing the birth of a new era in the world of solar photovoltaic energy, and its growth will be superior to any other technology by 2022“.
Regarding power generation, the use of renewable energy is expected to increase by more than a third through 2022, exceeding 8,000 TW hour, which is equivalent to the total electricity consumption of China, of India and Germany together.
When this target is met, clean energy will account for 30% of energy production, up from 24% in 2016. Renewable energy will grow faster than gas and coal combined. Although in 2022, coal remains the main source of electricity generation. But in just 5 years, renewables will produce half of the electricity that coal cannot produce, ending the production deficit.
3 factors that lead to the paradigm shift of renewable energies.
According to the IEA, 3 factors are responsible for the paradigm shift in renewable energy, in particular solar photovoltaic energy.
- About 7 million premature deaths per year due to pollution.
- Dangerous increase in the average temperature of the planet, above 2.7 ° C, if current policies are maintained.
- About 1.5 million people who do not have access to any type of electricity.
The health problem is particularly worrying in China, so they intend to transform their energy system by relying on renewable energies.
China is unquestionably a leader in the expansion of renewable energies, with an expected increase of 360 GW in its production capacity, which represents only 40% of global production.
In addition, China has already surpassed its target of producing electricity from photovoltaic energy, which was to be reached in 2020, i.e. it reached the target 3 years earlier.
Despite this, this 2017 renewable energy report published by the IEA recognizes that the continued decline in renewable energy subsidies and the difficulty of integrating into the grid are the biggest challenges for China.
Renewable energy production capacity could increase by 30% if the government decides to address the problems already identified. So by 2022, they could have a total of 1150 GW of solar PV and wind power installed, which would make China the largest producer of clean electricity in the world.
Asia and sub-Saharan Africa – lack of electricity.
One of the biggest problems in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa is the lack of electricity supply. But the IEA assures that this problem will be solved in the years to come with new renewable technologies, such as solar photovoltaic.
The report does a detailed analysis of how these countries can take advantage of solar energy. Africa and developing countries in Asia can benefit from solar photovoltaic energy, increasing production by more than 3,000 MW until 2022, from industrial plants, home photovoltaic systems and power grids. power supply funded by government programs, in addition to private sector initiatives.
But of course, these are just recommendations from the Energy Agency! But if they are applied, they will be able to guarantee electricity to nearly 70 million people in the next 5 years!
Implications of Trump’s policy.
The uncertainties surrounding Donald Trump’s energy and environmental policies leave us all worried. Also to experts in OUCH.
If Donald Trump continues with his policies, the United States will no longer benefit from his advantageous position, if they abandon such policies, then it will be the second fastest growing market, after India, whose energy growth renewables will overtake Europe by 2022.
As for China, it will continue to have wind and solar energy as the main drivers, notably thanks to state incentives. But the uncertainty surrounding tax reforms and international trade, as well as energy policies may have implications for the economy when it comes to renewables, and would alter their development during the designated period.
India has a more optimistic outlook as the financial situation of its energy companies improves, also resolving grid integration issues. Thus, in 2022, India is expected to double the growth of its current renewable energy production capacity. Being photovoltaic and wind power, 90% of India’s renewable electricity capacity, mainly due to the fact that electricity auctions have the lowest prices in the world.
If it continues on this path, India will remain close to the United States in terms of renewable energy growth, being the second largest growth market, just behind China.
Slowdown in Europe.
For European countries, forecasts indicate that growth will be 40% lower than in the previous period. But he underlines that among all the European countries, Denmark stands out and will be in 2022 the world leader in the production of electricity from renewable energies, that is to say with 70% of its production.
In other countries like Ireland, Germany and the UK, this percentage will only be 25%! A relatively low value, since they come from the richest countries in Europe.
The future of electric vehicles.
The Agency devoted a chapter to electric mobility, noting that globally, it predicts that in 2022 the electricity consumption of this type of vehicle will double, but that it will only represent 1% of energy. total produced by renewable energies.
Thus, the share of renewable energies in total energy consumption in the transport sector remains low. By taking in 2016 an evolution of 4% and in 2022 an evolution of only 5% is expected. It will take a miracle for these numbers to increase!
Heating and cooling systems.
Heating and cooling buildings accounts for a large part of global carbon dioxide emissions. This is the biggest challenge facing this sector, putting aside energy produced with coal and betting on renewable energies.
It is a bet already made, but slow, in 2015 it was 9% and we expect that in 2022 it will be 11%. To improve these values, the construction sector will have to do its part, bet on renewable energies and thus build more sustainable and environmentally friendly buildings.