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Four centuries. The transition to an emission-free energy system is expected to materialize in the absence of a good acceleration from the current pace. The estimate, from the scientist Ken caldeira, is explained in the levels of energy production. These amount to 151 megawatts per day when, to keep the system running by 2050, It would take 1,100 a day or, which is the same, almost eight times more than today.

These data, disclosed by MIT Technology Review, represent a real blow in the fight against climate change. “It’s not that we’re not working on getting clean energy fast enough to tackle the challenge of climate change, it’s that the world has barely started to face the problem, warns the aforementioned article. Thus, while the energy transition is progressing at its own pace, rising temperatures, thawing, rising sea levels, heat waves, etc.

Along with all this, the demand for energy is also increasing, which, instead of decreasing, rises to widen the distance between the reality of the system and what would be desirable for it to be sustainable. Between one extreme and the other, the need for powerful investments. So much so that it is illustrated by an example. Reduce emissions and, at the same time, meet energy demand 120,000 million solar panels must be installed before this century reaches its equator 250 watts. “There are few financial incentives for industry to build on such a scale and at such speed.”, underlines the MIT on the complexity of reaching such a level.

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In order, at least, to aspire to pave the way in this direction, in the opinion of the experts, many changes which encourage investments and reforms and, also, the opening to more emission-free sources of energy will be required. “The evidence indicates that a wider range of clean energy will be needed beyond solar and wind power, considers the MIT Technology Review, which advocates placing nuclear energy and natural gas with carbon capture, among others, at the center of the system.

In any case, in order not to have to wait four hundred years to complete an already more than urgent change, the experts believe that it is essential that the authorities at the global level promote policies which evolve decisively in this direction. . Alternatives favored by experts include: imposition of a carbon tax and, if not agreed, the obligation at least for companies not to exceed a certain level of emissions.

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If this kind of initiative came to fruition, there wouldn’t be much to celebrate either. And it is that in this way only a small part of the problem would be solved, which, moreover, is not the most complex. This is taken into account by University of California expert Steven Davis, who recalls that most of the world’s energy consumption is in areas such as aviation, international transport or the cement industries. and steel. “These are the really tough parts.”, on which it will also be necessary to act and invest with, among other things, energy storage systems and new biofuels. Although the challenges seem difficult, experts like Daniel Schrag, former adviser to Barack Obama, urge not to give up. “If you don’t arrive in 2050, you still have 2060, 2070 and 2080.”