According to the new Global Photovoltaic 2020, solar installations will continue to experience double-digit growth rates in the new decade on a global scale. However, great uncertainties remain in the Indian and Chinese markets.
The sun promises another decade of steady growth. According to the latest report from research firm IHS Markit, this year the industry is expected to increase by 14% in terms of new solar photovoltaic production capacity. A percentage that would translate into another 142 GW photovoltaic, i.e. seven times the total installed capacity at the start of the previous decade.
Another year (2020) of double-digit growth in global demand is evidence of the continued exponential growth of PV plants over the past decade. As the decade of technological innovation, sharp cost reductions, generous incentives and market dominance, the year 2020 will be remembered as the decade of unsubsidized PV, diversification and expansion. of demand for power plants. players and increased competitiveness compared to conventional energy sources.
Edurne Zoco, Director of Clean Technology and Renewable Energy at IHS Markit.
The general trend, exposed in the new IHS Global Photovoltaic 2020, is promising but also hides great uncertainties. Analysts believe that The ten largest solar powers of today will lose ground, with which their collective market share will increase to 73%. However, on the other hand, the geographic scope will change. In 2010, only seven countries had more than 1 GW of installed capacity, many of them in Europe. IHS Markit predicts that by the end of 2020, more than 43 countries will have reached this threshold. And new markets will emerge in Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
The main new photovoltaic markets for 2020.
China: 2020 photovoltaic capacity will be lower than the historic installation peaks of 50 GW reached in 2017. The main reason is that demand from China is in a transition phase full of uncertainties: the domestic market is heading towards the end subsidies and competition with other forms of electricity production therefore awaits the fourteenth five-year plan of the Asian giant.
United States: Installations are expected to grow by 20% in 2020, which will consolidate the United States’ position as the second largest solar market in the world. California, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and New York will be the main drivers of demand growth in the United States over the next five years.
Europe: After almost doubling its facilities in 2019, Europe should continue to show its strength. Analysts forecast 2020 growth of more than 24 GW, an increase of 5% from 2019. Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Ukraine will be the main ones. applicants, representing 63% of total EU installations in the Next year.
India: After a very stagnant year 2019, due to political uncertainties and the impact of import duties on solar modules and cells, photovoltaic installations should regain strength. The sector is expected to grow and exceed 14 GW of new capacity in 2020. At the same time, lower module prices and a large portfolio of projects are expected to support the further increase in demand.
More information: ihsmarkit.com